How Kepler & route1.io transformed easyJet’s MMM with Causal Data

easyJet’s Marketing Mix Model (MMM) informs multi-million-pound investment decisions across channels and markets. Yet despite social’s importance within the travel booking journey, its true impact remained statistically unclear due to heavy correlation with other digital media channels.

Kepler and route1.io set out to solve a critical business challenge: how to confidently measure the incremental value of Meta activity and improve profitable budget allocation decisions.

Rather than relying on attribution alone, Kepler developed a multi-layered causal experimentation framework combining Meta Conversion Lift Studies with geo-lift testing across multiple markets. The results were then integrated into easyJet’s MMM using route1.io’s advanced Bayesian modelling methodology, creating a unified and significantly more accurate source of truth.

The findings were remarkable. Kepler identified that high-value audience targeting drove an 11.48% incremental lift in purchases and significantly stronger Margin ROI than easyJet’s existing targeting strategy. The experimental data also enabled route1.io to tighten the MMM credible interval for social by 77%, dramatically improving confidence in the channel’s measurable contribution.

Armed with clearer insight and stronger profitability signals, easyJet confidently increased Meta investment by 35% in the following quarter, while campaign execution improvements contributed to an 88% uplift in Margin ROI.

This was more than a media optimisation project. It fundamentally changed how easyJet measures, values, and scales performance marketing across its travel business.